Tuesday, June 12, 2012

Climate Change Forecasts

Storm superpowers
                 Scientists do not have enough information to predict how climate change will affect hurricanes and tornadoes.
                 We have seen an increase in hurricane strength in recent years.  However, many hurricanes occur over the occean.  Until recently, no one has been able to measure how much power these hurricanes had.
                 Since the 1960s, we have been able to gather hurricane data from satellites.  But there is no historical record to compare what we are seeing now with earlier patterns.
                 We have a similar problem with tornadoes.  Although we have recorded more tornadoes in the last decade, we have only been able to accurately count the number of tornadoes since the 1990s, when Doppler radar was used throughout the country.
                  We don't know if these storms are really fieercer and more frequent, or if we just have better recording equipment, or both.
The effects of climate change
                  As the climate changes, people and wildlife will need to adjust.  Animals may migrate farther north to avoid the heat.
                  We can't tell exactly how much climate change has been caused by humans, but we know it's significant.  For example, in 2003, there were record heat waves across Europe.  Experts say human activities have made the risk of similar heat waves about four times greater than with nature alone.
                  Rising sea levels will make storms more destructive as tides rise.  Coastal flooding may increase.  Some bridges and buildings may not last.
Taking action
                 Most experts believe human activities, such as the burning of fossil fuels like oil and gas,are a major cause of climate change.
                 Computer models show that the planet will continue to warm even if we stop using fossil fuels completely right away.  The Earth and oceans will take years to lose the extra heat.
                 Depending on how much we lower our use of fossil fuels and how well our planet can adjust, the world's temperature could rise by 2 to 6 degrees by 2100.
                 This doesn't sound like a lot, but even small temperature changes can cause big differences.  For example, in the worst part of the last ice age, most of North America was covered by glaciers.  But the planet was only7 degrees colder than today.
                 Many of our bridges and buildings were designed for a different climate.  People may need to grow different crops.  We will work it out, but we need to plan and change our habits.

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